This Guy or That Guy? Fantasy Football Flex Decisions Week 13

feet on road with 3 arrows

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both…”

Ok, ok, enough of the Robert Frost poem. I won’t pretend to understand it, except that success in fantasy football life, like success in real life, comes down to making the right decisions. And each week in the game of fantasy football we face the difficult task of choosing the right flex player. This guy or that guy? I went into more detail about the rationale for this column in last week’s column.  I also offered 5 picks for your flex spot and hit on 3 which I reported on here. Let’s dig into your fantasy football flex options for week 13, which are a little thin with 4 teams on bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Tennessee.

Here are the picks, their matchups, and 4for4’s projected fantasy scores. And as a reminder, these are flex picks, for leagues in which you start 2 RBs and 2 WRs, so most will fall outside of everyone’s top 24 player rankings. Also understand that successfully picking any of the players in this range to boom is very difficult. The number crunchers who do the projections are usually quite accurate so the most likely outcome is that these players will meet or underperform expectations. I just think my picks below give you the best bet for a flex boom.

Fantasy Football Flex Boomers

Devin Singletary, RB, Bills v. Patriots, 8.5 points

It’s certainly a bold call to suggest Singletary against the Pats who are #13 against the run. But hear me out. Last week, the Titans torched the Pats on the ground with 39 rush attempts, 270 yards, 6.9 ypc, and 1 touchdown. The Pats only job really was to defend the run since the Titans rolled out a depleted receiving corps and threw a mere 21 passes for 85 yards. Now the Pats face the air raid of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Allen averages over 279 passing yards and 2 touchdowns a game, while he has added 383 yards and 3 TDs on the ground this season. It’s a reasonable deduction that the Pats will sell out to stop Allen’s passing game and dare the Bills to run on them. A light defensive front can give Singletary a chance to run.

Marvin Jones/Laviska Shenault, WRs, Jaguars v. Rams, 8.9 points and 7.1 points

I talked about these guys in the Week 13 Game Plan and I’m sticking with them as flex boomers for the reasons you can check out there. Don’t be afraid of the vaulted Rams defense against WRs. They aren’t as good as you think.

J.D. McKissic, RB, WFT v. Raiders, ***update 12/3/2021, McKissic has been ruled out

You’ll need to monitor McKissic’s status this week to see if he clears the concussion protocol, but I like him against the Raiders. The Raiders rank 30th against the run and the WFT has run the ball down its opponent’s throats over the last 3 games with an average of 39 rush attempts per game. Yes, Gibson gets the bulk of the carries, but McKissic averages 7 carries a game over the past 2 and he’s a big factor in the passing game with 53 targets and 43 catches on the season.

Odell Beckham, WR, Rams v. Jaguars, 10.8 points

I’m going back to the well with OBJ. He was a flex boomer in week 12 and posted 16.6 points, almost twice his projection. Stafford split targets between Kupp and OBJ with 10 each and OBJ had 5 catches and 1 touchdown in this loss to the Packers. The loss puts the Rams in a dogfight in the NFC West and they need to get right against the Jags, but the Rams better not sleep on the 2-9 Jags who shocked the Bills and the world in week 9. 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) ranks the Jags 9th against RBs and 20th to WRs. Beat the Jags through the air and let the fantasy points fly to OBJ.

Josh Reynolds, WR, Lions v. Vikings. 7.7 points

In the Week 13 Game Plan, I urged you to pick up the Vikings defense against the Lions and I stand by that call, but someone is going to catch the ball for the Lions, right? Reynolds played only his second game as a Lion last week and led the team in targets with 5. He caught 3 for 70 yards and a TD. Now he plays the Vikings, ranked 31st against WRs, and what is 7.7 points anyway? It’s 4 catches and 57 yards in half ppr. That should be easy against the #31 defense and toss in a TD and you’ve got a boomer. With the Lions RB Swift out this week, the Lions could go to the air more often, as well, leaving more meat on the bone for Reynolds.

Week 13 rewards all of our hard work over the last 12 weeks with some really tough fantasy football flex decisions and these decisions weigh heavily on our minds. I still have the same flex choices to make this week as I did last, but I share the same sentiments as Peyton Manning who said,  “What’s weighing on my mind is how soon I can get a Bud Light in my mouth after this win.” 

But not Bud Light.

 

 

 

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