*UCFL league mate, Kendall “The Hexorcist” Lowman contributed greatly to this article.
Friday morning, after the Patriots’ shellacked the Falcons the night before 25-0, my fantasy football league mate Fink the Stink commented in our Discord chat, “Note to self: drop all Atlanta Falcons and Pats D is for real”.
Truer words have never been spoken, but these observations won’t help you now for your week 11 fantasy football matchups. And that’s why we’re here with our weekly Game Plan to provide player and matchup insights that guide you into the right “who” decisions – who to play, who to sit, who to stream, who to trade for, and who to send packing.
Let’s get started.
Benefit from the bye weeks
Our first suggestion is more of a strategy than an idea just for week 11, but this is the time of season to execute it. Target bye weeks to go after players you want in trades. In a 14 game regular fantasy season, weeks 8 and 9 begin the witching hour for many teams in your league. Their playoff hopes hang in the balance and these fantasy managers are in win-now, do or die, survival mode. Can they really afford to have a lame duck Cooper Kupp on their benches during his bye week 11? Probably not if their teams sit at 4-6 or 5-5. If you’re comfortable right now, invest in your playoff run. Pounce on these desperate suckers with a trade offer like Justin Jefferson or Metcalf for Kupp. They get a legit starter to replace Kupp on bye week and you get an upgrade for the playoffs. Another one I like a lot is a trade for Javonte Williams. He’s on bye this week and his manager might be ready to unload him after a poor showing in week 10 of 5.9 fantasy points. I like him for all the reasons I wrote about him in this article.
Bye week flip side
On the flip side, if you’re in win-now mode, look at your bye weeks. Week 12 has the Cardinals and Chiefs on bye and unlucky week 13 has 4 teams on bye: Panthers, Browns, Packers, and Titans. Start shipping your bye week studs off for suitable replacements. Adams on your bench week 13 can’t help you win the crucial game you need for the playoffs and at this point, that’s all that matters.
Trade for Leonard Fournette. Once upon a time in my fantasy league and perhaps others, Fournette was the butt of many jokes. Drafted 4th overall in the 2017 draft, Fournette never lived up to his hype and frequent injuries won him the nickname “Ol’ Hammy” in my league. But Fournette has rejuvenated his career in Tampa. He has averaged 5.6 targets and 20.3 touches per game since week 4 and his remaining fantasy schedule is against the Giants, Colts, Falcons, Bills, Saints, Panthers, and Jets. With the trust of Brady on this highflying offense, a fantasy manager could do a lot worse than Fournette.
Knox is not where it’s at
Avoid Dawson Knox. While his matchup is good against the Colts, Knox has averaged only 4 targets per game this season. Additionally, he has only one game this season with more then 49 receiving yards. This makes him a td or bust option, and with Josh Allen looking more and more outside as he tries to regain the connection he had with Diggs last season, I’d rather roll the dice on another TE like Gesicki who has more consistent useage. After a 7 target, 0 point outing against the Ravens last week, the Gesicki fantasy manager may love an offer for Knox who plays for the high profile, more sexy Bills. Go with Magic Mike.
Getting down with Brown
Trade for AJ Brown. After back to back disappointing outings and a somewhat poor season thus far, the Brown fantasy manager is ripe for a cheap offer. But you know better. In the 8 full games AJ played this season he has averaged 8.4 targets per game. Henry is gone and the Titans have to rely more on Tannehill. Brown’s remaining fantasy schedule is among the easiest in the league for WRs – Houston, New England, bye week, Jax, Pittsburgh, SF, Miami. You have a very good chance of getting him for a bargain, especially if his fantasy manager can’t afford his upcoming bye week, which you’ll be sure to mention with your offer.
Sell the Jet
Sell high on the Jets’ running back Michael Carter. He has averaged 16.25 fantasy points a game over the last 4 weeks, including an eye-popping 27.7 against Cincy in week 8, which makes now the time to reap the profits on Carter. Without question Carter is a good running back, and his fantasy points have popped recently, but let’s consider some other factors. One, he plays for the Jets. Stop there? Ok, we’ve got more. In Carter’s first 5 games with Zach Wilson, he averaged 3 targets and 8 fantasy points a game, yet in the Mike White era, his targets have boomed to almost 8 a game. In fact, Carter leads the league in running back targets over the last 4 weeks (be sure to mention this fact in your sales presentation to Carter trade prospects). So why trade him now? The variable that contributed to his accession has changed. The Jets have benched White in favor of Joe Flacco and we have no guarantees that Carter keeps getting the targets. And with Wilson edging closer to a return, this Jet could easily land back to his 8 points a game. Fly high by selling high.
That’s it for this week. Good luck and may all your fantasies (in football) come true.
For more week 11 fantasy football guidance, check out our UCFL fantasy brothers Chris, Dan, and Justin on this week’s edition of their Laces Out podcast. It starts at about 6:45.
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